Call it a November surprise.
Democrats are basking in a midterm defeat that feels like a victory, an election night that bucks the recent trend of U.S. voters punishing the party in the White House.
But in the process, they may have breathed new life into a new big lie: allegations of ballot box fraud, this time centered on Arizona.
Republicans had a great night and were on track to win control of the House, but the “red wave” they hoped for never happened.
That appears to include Arizona, where former TV anchor Cary Lake borrowed heavily from Donald Trump’s campaign playbook for her chance to become governor.
Although trailing Secretary of State Katie Hobbs by more than 10 percentage points, Lake cited widespread reports of voting machine malfunctions suggesting she was the victim of election fraud.
Who will control the Senate also remains an open question, with a battle between NFL running back Herschel Walker and Democratic incumbent Raphael Warnock likely in a December runoff.
The narrow Republican advantage in the House, uncertainty in the Senate and new, baseless allegations of election fraud all point to continued chaos on Capitol Hill.
That could end up being the part that will have the biggest impact on Canada in Tuesday’s midterm elections, said Eric Miller, president of the Washington-based Rideau Potomac Strategy Group.
“Even if the blowout isn’t as big as people think, but you’re in a situation where there’s endless comment in Canada — how the U.S. is headed for disintegration, or a civil war, or unbelievable, etc. — that’s only amplified,” Miller said. Say.
“The system is starting to fail to work the way it should, to deal with the big picture, to pursue serious bilateral relations.”
One clear outcome on Tuesday will have an immediate impact: the re-election of Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, the impetus to shut down Canada’s cross-border Line 5 pipeline.
Whitmer edged out Republican challenger Tudor Dixon, a steel industry insider turned conservative commentator who sought to use Canada’s defense of Line 5 against her Democratic opponent.
In a debate with Whitmer last month, Dixon said that even Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, “the most radical environmentalist in the world”, is against closing the pipeline.
The battle for Michigan was just one of 506 gubernatorial, House and Senate races that came to fruition on Tuesday in a midterm showdown that pollsters and experts had expected to be a harsh indictment of the Biden administration.
It won’t — at least not on the scale Republicans hope.
Given their traditional pattern of punishing the incumbent’s party, midterm voters are expected to regain control of the House of Representatives, an outcome most political pundits are confident predicting.
But disappointment at the scale of the victory was written on the face of Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, who is widely expected to take the speaker’s gavel away from Nancy Pelosi if Republicans gain a majority.
“Obviously, we’re going to take back the House,” McCarthy told supporters in Washington. “You’re late, but when you wake up tomorrow, we’ll be in the majority and Nancy Pelosi will be in the minority.”
Earlier, Democrats managed to hold on to Virginia’s two bellwether House seats, and despite Biden’s convincing 10-point win there in 2020, Republican Gov. Glenn Yankin won in the state last year. Victory.
Then, Kathy Hochul won her first full term as governor of New York, despite a strong Republican challenge.
In Pennsylvania, Lt.-Gov. John Feltman was sidelined for much of the summer with a stroke that affected his speaking style and raised questions about his fitness for public office, which he grudgingly called a Weak but crucial victory over another Trump aide, Dr. Mehmet Oz.
“I don’t know what to say right now,” Feltman, wearing his signature black hoodie, told supporters in apparent humility.
“This movement has always been a fight for everyone who has been knocked down and got back on his feet.”
In Arizona, problems with voting tabulating machines quickly sparked allegations of election tampering, first by Trump on social media and later by Lake, as she urged supporters not to give up on the fight.
Officials insisted the machine’s problems didn’t stop anyone from voting, but that didn’t stop Lake from insisting.
“When we win, the number one action is to restore the integrity of the Arizona election,” she told supporters, trailing Democratic Secretary of State Katie Hobbs by 12 points, half the poll reported.
“When we win — which I think will be in a few hours — we’ll declare victory and we’ll set out to turn things around — no more incompetence and corruption in the Arizona election.”
The fierce battle in the battleground state all but ensures that the question of whether Republicans can wrest control of the upper chamber from Democrats will not be resolved immediately.
In Ohio, venture capitalist and “hillbilly dirge” author JD Vance — another Republican to have Trump’s seal of approval — completely defeated Democratic congressman Timothy Tee, who was trying to distance himself from President Joe Biden. Murian.
In Wisconsin, Republican incumbent Ron Johnson led Democrat Mandela Barnes by a narrow margin of 40,000 votes, with about 98 percent of the vote counted.
Combined with Feltman’s win, the focus shifted to Georgia, where Walker and Warnock traded razor-thin leads all night.
With 95 percent of the vote, Warnock leads Walker by 35,000 votes, but still half a percentage point below the 50 percent threshold necessary to avoid a repeat of the same mistakes in next month’s runoff.
“We’re not sure if tonight’s journey is over or if there’s still some work to do,” Warnock told his supporters.
“Here’s what we know: We know that when they count the votes for today’s election, we’re going to get more votes than my opponent.”
– James McCarten, Canadian Press
U.S.