The Canadian Real Estate Association expects the average home price to be 4.8 per cent lower by the end of the year than it was in 2022, but said prices will rise by roughly the same amount in 2024.
Forecasts released by the association on Friday show prices averaging $670,389 this year and $702,214 next year, when prices are expected to rise 4.7 percent.
The committee also expects home sales to fall 1.1% this year to 492,674 before rising 13.9% to 561,090 in 2024.
The forecast explains little change in monthly sales since the summer of 2022, as well as modest monthly increases recorded in February and March, as buyers moved closer to buying.
“As the spring market heats up and some buyers appear to be sitting on the sidelines, it’s important to remember that the intense market conditions of recent years haven’t disappeared, they’ve just paused,” said Jill Oudil, CREA’s chairman, in a statement. in the press release.
Canadians are re-entering a market that has seen months of declining sales, fewer listings and depressed buyer sentiment as eight straight rate hikes weighed on borrowing costs.
But the rate has remained unchanged twice in recent months, prompting some to focus again on buying while prices remain low.
These trends pushed home sales down 34.4% in March from a year earlier to 41,636 units.
Sales came in at a seasonally adjusted 33,833 units, about 1% higher than in February.
But CREA said new listings remained at 20-year lows.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, new listings totaled 53,298 in March, down 5.8% from February. Actual new listings were 68,597, down 27.4% year-over-year.
“Homes are not only selling but selling faster as buyers re-enter a market where supply is at historically low levels,” Oudil concluded.
However, prices have yet to rise to last year’s peak levels.
The average home price in March was $686,371, down 13.7% from a year earlier.
Excluding the Greater Toronto and Greater Vancouver areas from the calculation, which tend to be the hottest markets in the country, cut the national average price by more than $136,000.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the average home price rose 2% from February to $648,088.
CREA also said the average price was up nearly $75,000 from January 2023 levels.
—Tara Deschamps, Canadian Press
housing